When the whole world is discussing international terrorist act, that committed the Russian Federation, shooting down a civilian Boeing, would very much like to expand this topic. And look at the disaster in the sky not only as the individual event, and analyse the whole chain of reasons, leading up to the tragedy.
The truth is, not only, that is already proven international group, investigating. So clear, that Putin's power gave the command, Russian troops entered the territory of a neighbouring State, Click, and that has led to the death of 238 passengers and 15 crew members.
But the world community well worth a stop and ponder all these. And finally, come to the conclusion: any totalitarian regime at some point ceases to be an internal affair of a country. And if the meždanurodnye organization are unable or unwilling to stop the dictator, the late or early, his victims are peaceful people, and including and beyond one State.
Disaster in Donetsk: the causes of tragedy
In fact, recipe for disaster passes through four phases, to which I would like to stay in detail. It is precisely in this lies the real cause of the tragedy.
Firstly, None of the totalitarian system in the world today may not be effective. And very quickly the first transformation: from totalitarianism to stealing.
Thirdly, totalitarian regime fails to peacefully abandon their positions, because this will inevitably lead to a redistribution of property and punishment for crimes. Output becomes the unleashing of wars.
And, Finally, Fourthly, inefficient regime cannot for their looted the country confront other armies. And it means, late or early sliding to international terrorism.
This path are all totalitarian regimes. Exceptions if there are, only when the dictators time before — die from old age. But in General, This is a common scenario. From Adolf Hitler to Bashar Al-Assad and Vladimir Putin. And once we started with Boeing ", the use of the Russian President as an example.
From totalitarianism to stealing
Vladimir Putin came to the Kremlin, as we remember, in 2000 year. And he started his activity was not with any reforms, and with war, the declared, Firstly, in Chechnya, with the entire population of the Republic of, and secondly, in Russia-with the so-called oligarchs.
And we should understand, that transfer of power from the outset has not been transparent. The totalitarian system already was in full swing. And to keep your post, new leader needed to surround himself with its people.
In low competition key positions in Russia have always been wrong, who offered a better product or most advantageous terms for buying State property privatization, and those, who was closer to Kremlin.
It is not surprising, that the most advantageous positions in about State business, as well as in law enforcement agencies took the closest friends of Vladimir Putin. Or at least, Associates at the previous workplace — in the KGB of the USSR.
They have become the new formation of people, with full authority — from economic to political. And there, where someone all you can, be sure there is a place for corruption. As a matter of fact, corruption appears anywhere, where there is no transparent decision-making system.
From larceny to bankruptcy
While oil, quotes which were in 1998 year's level 12,5 USD, and by the end of 2013 the year is above 100 dollars per barrel, almost continuously grew, This enabled the authorities to cover all of their losses and errors.
The only time during this period, the situation has changed in 2008-2009 years, during the global financial crisis. But then the authorities managed to lose light fright. The developed economies fast enough to overcome the worst moments and once again began to develop.
During this period, the Kremlin ascended the throne as a puppet Prime Minister Medvedev. Most likely, and it took for, so just what do guilty in crisis. But it's happened a miracle. The global recession it have spent 8. And for that of the puppet President was again made a puppet Premier. Putin took his previous post.
However, to the 2013 year for any serious Economist was clear, that growth potential of oil quotations limited. In the United States a new technology — of shale gas. No prospects. And it means, and a contract with a population, According to which people pledged to remain silent in response to some uplifting the well-being, nearing termination.
For reference: in the last year, even in spite of the high prices of resources, in ruble terms, GDP growth turned out to be at zero, and currency – generally become negative. In general, ahead of the Kremlin was waiting for abyss.
From bankruptcy to war
The situation could not save even the Olympics. Moreover, the costs for the, with elements of mass embezzlement and corruption, more seriously aggravated the problem. The population began to openly grumble.
Someone will say, that protest times ascent to the throne of Vladimir Putin in third time, that is already partly illegally, with the substitution of the Constitution, in 2012 year went on the wane. However, it should be recalled, that rating "leader of the nation" at this point, even the official! – not much exceed 30%. A recession in the economy — only included.
By this time in a neighbouring State, Revolution broke out in Ukraine. As a result of which the exact same rogue was deposed and ended up on the run.
And another oil, breaking rush quotes, rushed down. When this debt amounted to record public corporations more 700 billion dollars. Than to give? This is several times more, than the default 1998 year.
That Vladimir Putin waited in the very near future? Imminent bankruptcy. Both economic, and political. And then the Court is for those cases, He managed to do even in their political youth, in the St. Petersburg Mayor's Office.
It is in this context and was implemented in advance a plan for the occupation of Crimea. It was an extreme measure. Most likely, power understood perfectly, that step it will make from Russia the world's outcast. But she went to Frank disregard of international law, because it is to them and to.
Putin and his entourage of Crimea is not required and the more, Lugansk and Donetsk region. In order for the, to cover their previous crimes they needed it is war and isolation. Can be, not global, and sufficient, the international community has taken retaliatory steps. That will be able to cancel the "temporary" difficulties and, can be, with some success, and yet not pay foreign debts.
From war to terrorism
But actually, fight Russia was unable. Not even worth talking about, that NATO, having almost sevenfold numerical superiority, not counting the technological advantages, would within a month to return the country back to the stone age.
Russia has not been able to fight with Ukraine. All successes, that have been achieved – solely the result of meanness. Capture the Crimea was a success only because nobody expected. Could not this be to Putin in Europe, where there is virtually no borders between countries, to someone raveli alien territory.
But in the surrounding areas of Ukraine the Russian international terrorists without badges gained an impressive fight back. Moreover, by August 2014 year situation generally proved to be sealed. Had there been no open military intervention, the so-called LNR and the DNI would be exempt from provocateurs by the autumn of the same year.
And even entering the troops, Russia has been unable to move into the country. Why they did not? Yes simply because that greeted desperate resistance, have lost the balance of the support of the local population, but still faced the fact: another step, and the world community still would be forced to intervene. In talks with Putin and Merkel Olandom unambiguously clear, that joke with him no one will.
Look the facts in the eye. Russian army, In addition to a small number of elite parts, is not a very well trained, but rather, beaten each other a lot in 750 th. – 1 million people. The population of Ukraine is 40 million people, with all the consequences this mobilization capability.
Such a war Russia can be only whole country, calling all men to the front. But that's just it hardly was Putin's plans. Because the first, far from being the whole country supports his adventure with the occupation of foreign lands. And secondly, because fighting is not something with which. Arms backward. Economy unfolds in crisis. Widespread production is minimized, machine scrapped, Mills rented offices.
So, chances to win — there is no. But even if a temporary success would be achieved, It means nothing. Ukrainian rebels could almost up to the fifties to resist the Stalinist Soviet Union, and Putin's Russia dozens of times weaker. That remains?
Only State terrorism. In order for the, to be able to explain in the end, its population: We are not to blame for the breakdown and decline. The enemies range. In Ukraine, in America, in Europe — anywhere. No money because of sanctions. And we don't fight, but only support.
Here at this stage and was finalized the path to tragedy, that unfolded in the skies over Donetsk. And in no other way. Because illegally abandoned in alien territory troops late or early necessarily commit something, then what would be considered international war crime.
In reality, We know, that downed Russian military Boeing – This is not an isolated case. It's worth remembering also launch rockets at civilians in Mariupol. And a lot, more.
Put the international barrier
Was it possible to save the passengers of the Boeing "and others, killed by Russian military-terrorists? Yes. And you can, and we had to do from the outset.
To do this, the reaction of the world community, in the first place, NATO, was supposed to be the same tough from the very first minute, both in relation to Iraq and Saddam Hussein, When he invaded Kuwait.
But whether you can do in such cases, no war and blood? It seems to me, that and it's real. In order for the, to save lives, the world community could act in advance. Declaring zero tolerance to any usurpation of power.
For example, not recognizing any head of State over parish, than two four-year terms. Fully and immediately rejecting any cooperation with such a leader and his country. Denying it automatically any immunity. And at the same time placing a barrier to theft and money-laundering abroad.